Quarterly Webinar: Q2 2026 Market and Economic Themes

Please join our Chief Investment Officer, Mike Minter, for our quarterly webinar (pre-recorded below) where we discuss ten relevant market and economic themes heading into the 2nd quarter of 2026. We will also be recapping the 1st quarter 2026 asset class performance and relevant metrics.

Click here for a PDF copy of the Q2 2026 Market and Economic Themes slides and important disclosures.

Q2 2026 Market and Economic Themes

Video Summary Below

Key Talking Points and Slides

Market Recap – Key Headlines From Last Quarter

• This slide graphs the S&P 500 Index during Q1 and overlays major economic and political events. Here are the main takeaways.
• The S&P 500 started the quarter near 6,850 and rallied through most of January, briefly touching an all-time intraday high of 7,000 the last week of January. The rally was driven by a broadening in market participation, with small-cap stocks and value stocks leading the rally. The rally was interrupted briefly on January 19 when the market sold off on tariff threats tied to Greenland, but equities recovered within days. The Russell 2000 hit its own all-time intraday high on January 22, capping a multi-week streak of outperformance over the S&P 500 as investors rotated into smaller companies on optimism around rate cuts and attractive valuations. The Fed held interest rates at 3.50-3.75% during its January 28 meeting, and Kevin Warsh was nominated as the next Fed Chairman, setting the stage for a leadership transition later this year.
• The market turned volatile at the start of February as a new theme emerged: AI disruption. Starting the first week of February, a sharp selloff hit the software and technology sectors as investors worried that new AI tools will displace traditional software businesses. The selling broadened over the following weeks and extended beyond software into financial services, logistics, real estate services, and other industries. The S&P 500 fell roughly -2.5% from its late-January highs during the initial wave, recovered, and then sold off again in the following weeks as AI disruption concerns intensified. Later in the month, the Supreme Court struck down the administration’s tariffs, removing a source of business uncertainty and briefly lifting stocks before attention shifted to the Middle East.
• The quarter’s defining event occurred in the final days of February, when the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran. The conflict escalated rapidly as the Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial shipping, disrupting roughly 20% of global oil flows. Oil prices surged from the mid-$60s to nearly $120 per barrel at the peak on March 9, and the S&P 500 traded lower due to concerns that higher oil prices would slow economic growth and weigh on corporate earnings. Later in the month, Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader declared that the Strait would remain closed, which pushed oil back near $100 and triggered another move lower in the stock market. The Fed held interest rates steady for a second consecutive meeting in March, and the market started to discuss the potential for rate hikes with oil remaining pinned near $100.
• The S&P 500 bottomed on March 30th and then rallied sharply the last day of the quarter as Iran signaled a willingness to end the war. The index ended the quarter near 6,500, nearly -4.5% below where it started. The quarter began with stocks setting new highs as market leadership broadened but ended with rising uncertainty around oil prices, inflation, and the path of Fed policy. We’ll explore these themes and their implications for portfolios in the rest of the webinar.

AI Disruption – Software Sell-off and the Importance of Diversification

• This slide focuses on one of the quarter’s most notable themes: the AI disruption sell-off in the software industry. The software industry started declining in late October and was already down nearly -8% in Q4, even as the S&P 500 and the broader tech sector were both slightly positive over the same period. The sell-off accelerated in late January and early February after a series of AI product launches demonstrated that general-purpose AI tools could perform tasks previously handled by specialized software, at a fraction of the cost. The market’s reaction was swift. Software stocks fell first, but concerns quickly spread to other industries, including financial data providers, commercial real estate services, and logistics companies. As of the end of the first quarter, the software index was down nearly -30% since the start of Q4.
• The chart on the left puts the sell-off into context. The current sell-off ranks as one of the largest non-recessionary software drawdowns in the past 30 years, surpassing the COVID pandemic’s roughly -26% decline. The only larger drawdowns occurred during the dot-com bust and the 2008 financial crisis, both of which occurred during recessions when corporate earnings were declining and businesses were cutting spending.
• The chart on the right tracks the S&P 500 Software and Services Index, the S&P 500 Technology Sector, and the S&P 500, all indexed to 100 on September 30th. The three lines tell a clear story about where the damage was concentrated. The broader technology sector, as shown by the light blue line, has declined but far less severely. Tech is down roughly -8% since the start of Q4, due to the sector including semiconductor and hardware companies that benefit from AI infrastructure spending. The S&P 500 is down around -2% the same period. The gap between the software index and the S&P 500 illustrates how concentrated the sell-off has been. What felt like a market-wide event was largely contained to a specific corner of the market, and diversified portfolios absorbed the disruption without significant damage.
• The broader question of how AI will reshape the software industry is far from resolved, but this episode reinforces why diversification across sectors and factors remains one of the most effective ways to manage uncertainty. The software sell-off was one catalyst that led to a change in market leadership during the quarter, which we’ll discuss on the next slide.

Market Leadership – Factor Rotation Leads to Broader Participation

• This slide compares the performance of six major U.S. equity indexes since the start of Q4 2025, with all prices indexed to 100 on September 30th. The indexes include the S&P 500, its growth and value sub-indexes, the Nasdaq 100, the Russell 2000, and the equal-weight S&P 500. Tracking all six on the same chart highlights how different parts of the market have performed relative to each other, and the story this quarter has been a notable shift in market leadership.
• For most of 2023 through 2025, large-cap growth stocks and mega-cap tech companies drove most of the market’s return, with the cap-weighted S&P 500 outperforming its equal-weight version by the widest margin since the dot-com era. The chart shows that dynamic started to reverse in Q1, as capital rotated out of the growth factor and into value, small caps, and equal-weight strategies. The Russell 2000 surged early in the quarter, at one point up nearly 10% into late January and posting strong outperformance against the S&P 500. Value stocks also traded higher, and the equal-weight S&P 500 outpaced the cap-weighted index, an indication that market leadership was broadening beyond the narrow group of mega-cap names that had been carrying the market. Several factors contributed to the rotation, including the Fed’s rate cuts in late 2025, which provided relief to rate-sensitive smaller companies, a wide valuation gap between large-cap growth and the rest of the market, and expectations for continued economic growth in 2026.
• The rotation continued into late February as concerns about AI disruption weighed on software and technology companies, which are disproportionately in growth and market-cap weighted funds. However, the backdrop shifted in March as the U.S.-Iran conflict sent oil prices surging and triggered a broad risk-off move. Stocks traded lower as concerns about high oil prices weighed on the outlook, with growth stocks and the Nasdaq 100 holding up better than small caps and value stocks.
• The performance gap narrowed toward the end of the quarter, but it hasn’t reversed. Value leads growth by roughly +8.5% since the start of Q4, and the Russell 2000 is outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly +5%. The question heading into Q2 is whether the broadening in market leadership from earlier in Q1 reasserts itself, or whether the geopolitical shock has reset the playing field. The rotation was building on fundamental and valuation grounds before the conflict began, which suggests it could have staying power. A sustained broadening would be a healthy sign for the market, as it would mean returns are being driven by a wider set of companies rather than a narrow group of mega-cap stocks.

U.S. Economic Activity – Manufacturing Returning to Expansion

• This slide looks at a key measure of economic activity: the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, for both manufacturing and services. The PMI is a widely followed survey of business activity. Readings above 50 signal expansion, and readings below 50 indicate contraction. The chart tracks both measures from the end of 2021 through February 2026.
• Starting with services, the light blue line, the ISM Services PMI has remained in expansion territory for nearly the entire period on this chart. It’s only dipped below 50 two times since the start of 2023. Services have been the backbone of U.S. economic growth over the past three years, with consumer spending on healthcare, travel, financial services, and technology driving activity even as other parts of the economy slowed. The February 2026 reading of 56.1 is the strongest since late 2024 and the highest since July 2022, an indication that the services economy remains on solid footing.
• The manufacturing story is very different. The dark blue line shows that manufacturing has been in contraction for most of the past three years, spending 34 of the prior 38 months below the 50 line. The contraction began in late 2022 as the Fed’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle, rising input costs, and weakening global demand weighed on the industrial sector. There was a brief touch of the 50 line in early 2025, but manufacturing slipped back below 50 for another 10 months after that. The false start in early 2025 is important context for what happened earlier this year.
• In January 2026, the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6, and it held at 52.4 in February. Those are the first back-to-back months in expansion territory since late 2022. Unlike the early 2025 episode, the current readings are meaningfully above the 50 line. The follow-through in the second month suggests this is more than a one-month anomaly, and potentially a significant development. For the past three years, the U.S. economy’s growth has been almost entirely a services story. Manufacturing’s return to expansion signals a potential broadening of economic activity, which would be positive for the overall economy if the trend holds. The question heading into Q2 is whether manufacturing can sustain this momentum or whether it fades like it did last year.

Oil Prices – Historical Context and Implications for the Economy

• This slide looks at oil prices, which have surged to $100 per barrel due to the U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The chart graphs WTI crude oil prices going back to 2006, providing a long-term view of where prices stand today relative to history. The inset chart zooms in to show YTD price action and how quickly the move unfolded.
• Looking at the longer-term chart, oil prices have experienced several major spikes over the past two decades. WTI hit $140 per barrel in mid-2008, traded above $100 for an extended period from 2011 to 2014, and spiked above $110 in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In between those events, oil experienced long stretches well below $80, including dips below $40 in 2009, 2016, and 2020. The current reading near $100 per barrel puts oil at its highest level since mid-2022 and marks only the fourth time in the past 20 years that WTI has traded near or above the $100 threshold.
• The inset chart tells the story of how we got here. Oil started the year around $57 per barrel and traded in a relatively narrow range through mid-February, gradually climbing into the low $60s. The spike began in late February as the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated and the Strait of Hormuz was closed to commercial shipping. The Strait is a critical chokepoint for global energy markets and handles roughly 20 million barrels of oil exports per day. Its closure represents the largest physical supply disruption since the 1970s. Prices surged from the mid-$60s to nearly $100 in a matter of weeks, with extreme volatility along the way. The International Energy Agency announced a record 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release to stabilize markets, but the effect was short-lived as prices rebounded. The market’s message was clear: reserve releases can bridge a short disruption, but they can’t substitute for the reopening of the Strait.
• The surge in oil prices has immediate implications for the broader economy. National average gasoline prices have risen nearly $1 per gallon since in late February. These increases act as a direct tax on consumers and businesses, and they complicate the inflation picture at a time when core inflation was already running above the Fed’s 2% target. The key question is how long this lasts. If the Strait reopens in the coming weeks, prices are expected to normalize relatively quickly, with forecasters projecting oil could fall back toward the $70s by mid-year. However, if the closure extends longer, oil prices could remain high and lead to rising inflation, fewer rate cuts, and reduced consumer spending.

Inflation Monitor – Update on Recent Inflation Trends

• This slide provides a two-part snapshot of the inflation picture heading into Q2. The chart on the left graphs headline PCE and core PCE on a year-over-year basis since 2017. The chart on the right breaks that same measure into its two major components (goods prices and services prices) to show where the remaining inflation pressure is coming from. The takeaway is that the dramatic improvement in inflation from its 2022 peak has been substantial but incomplete, and the reason is a combination of sticky services inflation and rising goods inflation.
• The chart on the left shows that headline PCE peaked near 7.0% in mid-2022, with core PCE peaking near 5.5% shortly after. Both measures fell steadily through 2023 and into 2024 as supply chains healed and energy prices stabilized. That progress was encouraging, but the descent slowed noticeably in late 2024 and has since flatlined. As of the January 2026 reading, headline PCE sits at 2.8% year-over-year. Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred measure, which strips out volatile food and energy prices) ticked up to 3.1% from 3.0% in December. On a month-over-month basis, core PCE rose 0.4% in January, the hottest monthly print since early, with the annualized rate running near 4.5%. If the trend holds, the 12-month number could continue to rise in the coming months.
• The chart on the right explains why. Goods inflation, the dark blue line, surged above 10% year-over-year in early 2022 as pandemic-era supply chain disruptions drove prices sharply higher. That wave has fully resolved. Goods prices spent much of 2023 and into 2024 in outright deflation, falling on a year-over-year basis, and have since stabilized around 1.3%. Goods have done more than their share of the disinflationary work. Services inflation, the lighter line, peaked around 6% in late 2022 and has come down more gradually. However, the descent stalled at roughly 3.4% in the second half of 2025, and the January reading ticked up to 3.5%. The primary culprits are categories that are relatively insensitive to higher interest rates: insurance premiums for employer-sponsored plans, medical care services, and specialized professional services all remain elevated.
• The gap between the goods and services lines on the right-hand chart is the core of the Fed’s dilemma. With goods normalized and no longer providing a disinflationary tailwind, the burden of getting inflation back to 2% falls almost entirely on the services side, which is where progress has stalled. One encouraging offset is shelter costs, the single largest services component, which recently posted one of its smallest monthly increase since early 2021. If shelter continues to normalize, it could do some of the heavy lifting. However, the broader question is whether shelter relief alone is enough to overcome stickiness in insurance, healthcare, and other labor-intensive categories. The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict adds another dimension, with surging oil prices likely to create additional inflationary pressures. The numbers in these charts are the latest data from January, which was before the conflict, and the concern is that rising oil prices could push headline inflation back above 3% and further complicate Fed policy.

Interest Rates – How Many Rate Cuts Are Forecast in 2026?

• This slide provides an update on Federal Reserve policy, showing how the rise in oil prices and recent inflation data have combined to impact the rate cut path. It graphs the federal funds rate from early 2021 through today, with the shaded area on the right showing the market’s forecast for the remainder of 2026. The chart includes two forecast lines: the current forecast and the forecast one month ago (i.e., the end of February). The gap between those two lines tells an important story about how quickly the outlook has shifted.
• To recap the past few years, the Fed started to aggressively hike interest rates in early 2022 in response to surging inflation. From March 2022 through mid-2023, the central bank hiked rates by more than +5.00%, one of the fastest rate-hiking cycles in modern history. It held rates at that level through September 2024, when it began cutting. Since then, the Fed has reduced interest rates by a total of -1.75%, bringing the target range down to 3.50-3.75%. This year, the Fed has held interest rates steady at both its January and March meetings, and the tone has shifted toward fewer rate cuts.
• The shaded forecast window shows how dramatically expectations shifted in March. As of the end of February, the dotted line shows the market was pricing in a policy rate near 3.05% by year-end, which implied roughly three rate cuts. Today, the dashed line shows the market expects the fed funds rate to end the year around 3.56%, only slightly below where it sits currently. The repricing reflects three developments. First, the U.S.-Iran conflict sent oil prices surging toward $100 per barrel, raising concerns about energy-driven inflation. Second, inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target, with the Fed itself raising its 2026 inflation forecast at the March meeting. Third, Fed Chair Powell’s tone at the March press conference was cautious, noting the committee wants to see more progress on inflation before cutting rates further. The market expected multiple rate cuts at the start of this year but is now pricing in the possibility that rates stay where they are through year-end.
• The shift from “when will the Fed cut” to “will the Fed cut at all in 2026” has broad implications. Higher-for-longer interest rates could weigh on borrowers, from homeowners to small businesses to companies with floating-rate debt. At the same time, the Fed is being cautious rather than signaling alarm. Its latest projections still show one cut this year, GDP growth was revised slightly higher, and the unemployment forecast was unchanged. The key question is whether the oil-driven inflation pressures prove temporary or persistent. If the conflict is resolved and oil prices normalize, the Fed could cut rates later this year. If inflation remains elevated, interest rates could remain higher for longer than the market expected coming into 2026.

Fixed Income – High Yield Credit Spreads Widen in Response to Oil Shock

• This slide looks at credit markets through the lens of the high-yield credit spread, which measures how much lower-rated companies pay to borrow compared to the U.S. government. It is one of the most closely watched indicators of credit market health. When spreads are tight, the market is confident in corporate health. When they widen, it signals the market is becoming more cautious about the economic outlook.
• The chart graphs the high-yield spread since 1996. The pattern is clear: credit spreads spike during crises. The high-yield spread widened to more than 10% during both the dot-com bust (2001) and 2022, surged to nearly 20% during the 2008 financial crisis, and approached 9% during the COVID pandemic shock in early 2020. Between those episodes, spreads have generally settled in the 4% to 6% range, with the long-term median around 4.5%. Today’s reading of 3.28% is well below that median, but it has been rising since the start of 2026.
• The top right chart zooms in to show how credit spreads have moved over the past 15 months. Spreads started 2025 near cycle lows around 2.60%, then briefly spiked to 4.60% in early April 2025 as trade policy uncertainty rattled markets. The high-yield spread then tightened back to the high 2% range in the second half of 2025 as trade deals were reached and the global economy stabilized, and it remained near those levels heading into early 2026. The recent widening began in late February as the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated and oil prices surged, pushing spreads from around 2.85% to nearly 3.50% in a matter of weeks.
• The current spread of 3.28% is worth putting into perspective. It’s above the cycle lows but still well below the 4.5% long-term median and far from the 5% or higher levels that have historically signaled systemic credit stress. The widening has been orderly and reflects the market repricing risk in response to geopolitical uncertainty and higher oil prices, not a fundamental breakdown in corporate credit quality. The key risk is how long the conflict lasts. If the conflict persists and oil stays elevated, higher energy costs could weigh on corporate margins and push spreads wider. If the conflict is resolved and oil normalizes, history suggests spreads would tighten relatively quickly, as they did after the tariff-related widening last spring. This is a metric worth watching closely in the coming weeks.

Long Term Perspective – S&P 500 is 96% Correlated with Earnings Growth

• This slide takes a closer look at the relationship between the S&P 500’s price and the earnings that underpin it. It addresses a question many investors are asking right now: if the market is falling, are companies in trouble? The chart on the left compares the S&P 500’s price level against its rolling 12-month earnings per share going back to the year 2000. The chart on the right tracks how analysts’ quarterly earnings estimates for 2026 have evolved since September.
• The chart on the left illustrates one of the most important relationships in investing. Over the past 26 years, the S&P 500’s price and its earnings have moved together with a 96% correlation. When earnings rise, prices generally tend to rise. When earnings decline, as they did during the 2001 recession, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic, stock prices tend to fall with them. What stands out about the current environment is that earnings have continued to rise even as the S&P 500 has pulled back roughly -6.5% from its record high in late January. On a near term basis, the two lines are diverging in a way that signals the market is getting cheaper on a fundamental basis. The forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen from ~22x at the end of 2025 to ~19x at the end of Q1, meaning investors are paying less for each dollar of expected earnings. The sell-off has been driven by a repricing of risk in response to the geopolitical environment, not a deterioration in corporate fundamentals.
• The chart on the right tells a similar story from a different angle. It tracks the consensus earnings estimate for each quarter of 2026 over the past six months. The Q1 estimate, shown in gray, is mostly unchanged since September and modestly lower compared to the start of 2026. The stability is notable, because while it suggests analysts see some near-term impact from the conflict, they aren’t forecasting a significant earnings decline in Q1. In contrast, the Q2, Q3, and Q4 estimates have all continued to trend higher over the same period. The upward slope of those lines suggests the market expects the impact of the conflict to be contained and temporary, an indication that analysts are projecting earnings growth in the back of the year.
• The takeaway is that the recent market decline reflects a valuation adjustment, not a fundamental deterioration. Earnings estimates are rising, companies are beating expectations, and profit margins remain healthy. The market is repricing for uncertainty around oil prices, inflation, and the path of Fed policy, but it hasn’t priced in a recession or an earnings contraction. The next update will come in April as companies start reporting Q1 results and provide the first round of guidance that fully incorporates the conflict. If companies maintain their expectations for the back half of the year, the current pullback could suggest the market is trading at a discount to its earnings potential. If guidance turns cautious, the earnings estimates on the right side of the chart may need to come down.

Looking Ahead: Key Themes for the Next Six Months

• This slide highlights three market themes to watch over the next six months.
• The first theme is the U.S.-Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices. The U.S.-Iran conflict has sent oil from the mid-$60s to over $100 per barrel, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial shipping. The Strait handles roughly 20% of global oil flows, making this the most significant oil supply disruption in decades. The key question is how long will this last. If the conflict is resolved quickly, oil prices could start to normalize, and the economic impact might be limited. If it persists, elevated energy costs could weigh on consumer spending, corporate margins, and inflation. The trajectory of the conflict will influence nearly every other theme discussed in this webinar.
• The second theme is the ongoing debate around AI disruption. The software industry has declined nearly -30% from its October peak as investors reassess which businesses are vulnerable to AI models and tools. The sell-off extended beyond software into real estate services, logistics, and other sectors before stabilizing in late February. The core question is whether AI will enhance existing businesses or disrupt their business models entirely. The market is still working out the answer and will be monitoring releases of new AI models. This theme could continue to be a source of volatility as more AI tools are released and companies start to develop their responses.
• The third theme is Federal Reserve policy. The Fed held interest rates steady at both its January and March meetings after cutting three times in late 2025. The market entered this year expecting three rate cuts, but it has repriced dramatically due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and the threat of inflation. The key question is whether the oil-driven inflation pressures prove temporary or persistent. The Fed’s next move will depend on how the conflict evolves, whether energy costs pass through to broader inflation, and whether the labor market holds up. The answer will have direct implications for mortgage rates, borrowing costs, and the broader economy.

Closing Thoughts

• Thank you everyone for joining us today as we hope this webinar has been insightful into the market themes our team is following as we work hard to manage your family’s wealth alongside ours.
• For our current clients, you can always get in touch with us by reaching out to your financial advisor by phone or email.
• For prospective clients that tuned in today, thank you for joining us. Please feel free to contact us should you have any interest in our services or if there are any questions we can answer.

Concerns or questions about how your investment portfolio will hold up in the current market environment? Contact Financial Synergies today.

We are a boutique, financial advisory and total wealth management firm with over 35 years helping clients navigate turbulent markets. To learn more about our approach to investment management please reach out to us. One of our seasoned advisors would be happy to help you build a custom financial plan to help ensure you accomplish your financial goals and objectives. Schedule a conversation with us today.

More relevant articles by Financial Synergies:

• Quarterly Webinar: Q4 2025 Market and Economic Themes
• Quarterly Webinar: Q3 2025 Market and Economic Themes
• 1st Quarter 2026 Market and Economic Review

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