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Weekly insights on the markets, economy, and financial planning

Is a Zombie Recession coming? (By that, I mean that renewed fears of a "hard landing" recession have emerged from the grave.)

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As we head into the Christmas break, the S&P 500 reached another milestone, surpassing the 3200 level in a 1.7% advance this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (+2.2%) also rallied further into record territory. The Russell 2000 kept pace with the Nasdaq with a solid 2.1% weekly gain.
We have much to be thankful for this year. Stock markets are riding high as we approach the end of 2019. The S&P 500 has returned nearly 30% with dividends, the MSCI EAFE index of developed markets is up over 21%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index has gained about 15%.
It's no secret that U.S.-China trade talks have dominated market headlines in 2019. Escalating tariffs on both sides of the Pacific and the possibility of an extended trade war have led to swings in the stock market all year long.
The S&P 500 snapped a six-week winning streak, although it declined just 0.3% this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) and Russell 2000 (-0.5%) performed in-line with the benchmark index this week, reflecting a broad-based lack of conviction.
With the 2020 Presidential Election less than a year away, it's natural to be concerned about the impact of politics on the stock market and economy. After all, the past three years have been politically turbulent to say the least.
Interest rates have been on a rollercoaster ride this year. The 10-year Treasury yield was as high as 2.8% at the start of the year before falling below 1.5% only two months ago - the lowest level since 2016.
The S&P 500 (+0.9%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.1%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.2%) broke out to new record highs in a week full of trade headlines that were viewed favorably by the market. Cyclical sectors set the pace while U.S. Treasuries sold off. The small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.6%) trailed its large-cap peers.
The S&P 500 (+1.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.7%) both set record highs in this macro-driven week that featured the Fed, economic data, earnings reports, and trade news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4%, and the Russell 2000 rose 2.0%.
Nick Murray, one of the most prolific scholars in our industry, states in his book Behavioral Investment Counseling that “your family’s financial well-being in later life, and its ability to leave significant legacies to its children, will depend largely on what percentage of its income it manages to save – perhaps the ultimate behavioral variable.”
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
As the corporate earnings season kicks off, it's important to consider not only how companies are doing, but also how far they have come over the past decade. This is because, for long-term investors, there's nothing more important than economic growth and its impact on corporate profits.
The S&P 500 advanced 0.5% this week, as the first busy week of earnings reports for the third quarter was generally viewed as better than feared. The benchmark index outpaced the Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%), but fell behind the Russell 2000 (+1.6%).
Below please find our 3rd Quarter 2019 Newsletter. Enclosed you’ll find articles on the state of the markets, financial planning, and investing.
I want to get this out right off the bat - recessions are a part of the business cycle, thus part of every investor’s investing life. They occur every 4-10 years, so we must expect them. Some clients and financial pundits feel that we are on the precipice of a new recession.

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