Oil & Yields Decline, Q2 GDP, New Home Sales, & Nvidia Earnings
Weekly Market Recap
Markets traded higher last week as oil and long-term Treasury yields pulled back after rising last week. The S&P 500 gained +0.49%, and the Nasdaq rose +0.85%. Growth (+1.6%) outperformed Value (+0.6%), while the Equal-Weight S&P 500 gained +0.6%, signaling leadership from the largest stocks. Technology led all sectors with a +2.7% return, followed by Materials (+1.7%) and Financials (+1.6%). Energy (-2.2%) was the weakest sector as oil declined -3.6%. Bonds rebounded as Treasury yields declined, with long-maturity Treasuries gaining +0.9% while shorter-maturity bonds were flat. Corporate bonds rose but trailed Treasuries, with investment-grade outperforming high-yield. Volatility eased in the equity and bond markets, the U.S. dollar strengthened modestly, and Bitcoin rose nearly +10%.
Key Takeaways
Oil Prices & Treasury Yields Pull Back
Two of last week’s biggest sources of market pressure moved in the opposite direction. Brent crude fell from the mid-$90s to ~$88 as concerns around the Strait of Hormuz eased. Treasury yields also declined, with the 30-year yield falling from about 5.27% to roughly 5.17%. The moves provided some relief after rising energy prices and borrowing costs weighed on stocks last week. Why it matters: The reversal eased some of the near-term pressure on inflation expectations and financial conditions, although both oil prices and long-term interest rates remain elevated.
Underlying Private Demand Remained Strong in Q2 Even as Headline GDP Growth Slowed
The second Q2 estimate showed the U.S. economy grew at a +1.5% annualized rate, unchanged from the initial estimate and down from +2.1% in Q1. However, real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which measure consumer spending and private fixed investment, were revised higher to +4.2% from +3.9%. The gap reflects several drags on headline GDP, including declining government spending and increased imports, that don’t necessarily indicate weak private demand. Why it matters: The headline growth rate understated the strength of underlying private demand, making the Q2 slowdown less broad than the +1.5% figure suggests.
Business Investment & Equipment Orders Remain Strong
Durable goods orders rose +1.1%, while orders excluding the volatile transportation category increased +0.4%. Nondefense capital-goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business investment, also rose and remained near recent highs. The monthly increase was modest, but the broader trend has strengthened since the spring, extending the underlying resilience visible in Q2 GDP. Why it matters: Business investment continues to stand out as a relatively strong part of an otherwise uneven economic backdrop.
New Home Sales Remain Near Pre-Pandemic Trend as High Mortgage Rates Weigh on Demand
Sales of new single-family homes fell -10.5% in July to a 607,000 annualized rate, down from 678,000 in June and -6.3% from a year earlier. The pace of sales is now roughly in line with the years immediately before the pandemic, when sales averaged around 600,000 to 680,000 annually. The supply of new homes rose to 9.6 months at the current sales pace as mortgage rates remained in the mid-6% range, keeping monthly payments elevated even as builders cut prices or offered incentives. Why it matters: Housing is one of the clearest areas where higher long-term interest rates are translating into weaker real economic activity.
Nvidia’s Earning Results Signal Strong Demand for AI Infrastructure
Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, more than double a year earlier, with data-center revenue climbing to $89.0 billion. The company projected $108 billion of revenue for the current quarter even without assuming any China data-center sales. The results reinforce an important distinction: investors continue to debate whether the enormous sums being spent on artificial intelligence will generate adequate returns, but demand for the infrastructure supporting that investment has shown little sign of slowing. Why it matters: The AI buildout continues to expand rapidly even as the market debates whether the growth will eventually justify the cost.
Concerns or questions about how your investment portfolio will hold up in the current market environment? Contact Financial Synergies today.
We are a boutique, financial advisory and total wealth management firm with over 35 years helping clients navigate turbulent markets. To learn more about our approach to investment management and financial planning, please reach out to us. One of our seasoned advisors would be happy to help you build a custom financial plan to help ensure you accomplish your financial goals and objectives. Schedule a conversation with us today.
More relevant articles by Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors:
Blog Disclosures
This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own financial advisors as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.
The commentary in this “post” (including any related blogs, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded as the views of Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. or performance returns of any Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. client.
Any opinions expressed herein do not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship, or recommendation by Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. or its employees. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice.
Nothing on this website constitutes investment or financial planning advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. It also should not be construed as an offer soliciting the purchase or sale of any security mentioned. Nor should it be construed as an offer to provide investment advisory services by Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc.
Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Any charts provided here or on any related Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. personnel content outlets are for informational purposes only, and should also not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital; please seek advice from a licensed professional. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Information in charts have been obtained from third-party sources and data, and may include those from portfolio securities of funds managed by Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. While taken from sources believed to be reliable, Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. has not independently verified such information and makes no representations about the enduring accuracy of the information or its appropriateness for a given situation. All content speaks only as of the date indicated.
Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. is a registered investment adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
See Full Disclosures Page Here
Skip to content
Weekly Market Recap – Oil & Yields Decline, Q2 GDP, New Home Sales, & Nvidia Earnings
Oil & Yields Decline, Q2 GDP, New Home Sales, & Nvidia Earnings
Weekly Market Recap
Markets traded higher last week as oil and long-term Treasury yields pulled back after rising last week. The S&P 500 gained +0.49%, and the Nasdaq rose +0.85%. Growth (+1.6%) outperformed Value (+0.6%), while the Equal-Weight S&P 500 gained +0.6%, signaling leadership from the largest stocks. Technology led all sectors with a +2.7% return, followed by Materials (+1.7%) and Financials (+1.6%). Energy (-2.2%) was the weakest sector as oil declined -3.6%. Bonds rebounded as Treasury yields declined, with long-maturity Treasuries gaining +0.9% while shorter-maturity bonds were flat. Corporate bonds rose but trailed Treasuries, with investment-grade outperforming high-yield. Volatility eased in the equity and bond markets, the U.S. dollar strengthened modestly, and Bitcoin rose nearly +10%.
Key Takeaways
Oil Prices & Treasury Yields Pull Back
Two of last week’s biggest sources of market pressure moved in the opposite direction. Brent crude fell from the mid-$90s to ~$88 as concerns around the Strait of Hormuz eased. Treasury yields also declined, with the 30-year yield falling from about 5.27% to roughly 5.17%. The moves provided some relief after rising energy prices and borrowing costs weighed on stocks last week. Why it matters: The reversal eased some of the near-term pressure on inflation expectations and financial conditions, although both oil prices and long-term interest rates remain elevated.
Underlying Private Demand Remained Strong in Q2 Even as Headline GDP Growth Slowed
The second Q2 estimate showed the U.S. economy grew at a +1.5% annualized rate, unchanged from the initial estimate and down from +2.1% in Q1. However, real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which measure consumer spending and private fixed investment, were revised higher to +4.2% from +3.9%. The gap reflects several drags on headline GDP, including declining government spending and increased imports, that don’t necessarily indicate weak private demand. Why it matters: The headline growth rate understated the strength of underlying private demand, making the Q2 slowdown less broad than the +1.5% figure suggests.
Business Investment & Equipment Orders Remain Strong
Durable goods orders rose +1.1%, while orders excluding the volatile transportation category increased +0.4%. Nondefense capital-goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business investment, also rose and remained near recent highs. The monthly increase was modest, but the broader trend has strengthened since the spring, extending the underlying resilience visible in Q2 GDP. Why it matters: Business investment continues to stand out as a relatively strong part of an otherwise uneven economic backdrop.
New Home Sales Remain Near Pre-Pandemic Trend as High Mortgage Rates Weigh on Demand
Sales of new single-family homes fell -10.5% in July to a 607,000 annualized rate, down from 678,000 in June and -6.3% from a year earlier. The pace of sales is now roughly in line with the years immediately before the pandemic, when sales averaged around 600,000 to 680,000 annually. The supply of new homes rose to 9.6 months at the current sales pace as mortgage rates remained in the mid-6% range, keeping monthly payments elevated even as builders cut prices or offered incentives. Why it matters: Housing is one of the clearest areas where higher long-term interest rates are translating into weaker real economic activity.
Nvidia’s Earning Results Signal Strong Demand for AI Infrastructure
Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, more than double a year earlier, with data-center revenue climbing to $89.0 billion. The company projected $108 billion of revenue for the current quarter even without assuming any China data-center sales. The results reinforce an important distinction: investors continue to debate whether the enormous sums being spent on artificial intelligence will generate adequate returns, but demand for the infrastructure supporting that investment has shown little sign of slowing. Why it matters: The AI buildout continues to expand rapidly even as the market debates whether the growth will eventually justify the cost.
Concerns or questions about how your investment portfolio will hold up in the current market environment? Contact Financial Synergies today.
We are a boutique, financial advisory and total wealth management firm with over 35 years helping clients navigate turbulent markets. To learn more about our approach to investment management and financial planning, please reach out to us. One of our seasoned advisors would be happy to help you build a custom financial plan to help ensure you accomplish your financial goals and objectives. Schedule a conversation with us today.
More relevant articles by Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors:
Blog Disclosures
This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own financial advisors as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.
The commentary in this “post” (including any related blogs, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded as the views of Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. or performance returns of any Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. client.
Any opinions expressed herein do not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship, or recommendation by Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. or its employees. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice.
Nothing on this website constitutes investment or financial planning advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. It also should not be construed as an offer soliciting the purchase or sale of any security mentioned. Nor should it be construed as an offer to provide investment advisory services by Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc.
Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Any charts provided here or on any related Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. personnel content outlets are for informational purposes only, and should also not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital; please seek advice from a licensed professional. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Information in charts have been obtained from third-party sources and data, and may include those from portfolio securities of funds managed by Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. While taken from sources believed to be reliable, Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. has not independently verified such information and makes no representations about the enduring accuracy of the information or its appropriateness for a given situation. All content speaks only as of the date indicated.
Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. is a registered investment adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors, Inc. and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
See Full Disclosures Page Here
Recent Posts
Weekly Market Recap – September Inflation & Retail Sales Data, AI Financing, & Bank Earnings
Happy Birthday to the Bull Market
Quarterly Webinar: Q4 2026 Market and Economic Themes
Subscribe to Our Blog
Chief Investment Officer | Managing Partner