The stock market finished out last week on an upbeat note ahead of the extended holiday weekend. The major indices saw some turbulent action, though, as market participants dealt with a lot of crosscurrents. The S&P 500 traded in a wide band between 4,100 and its closing level on Friday, which was just above 4,200. The latter is the highest level for the S&P 500 since last August.
Uncertainty about the debt ceiling kept the market in check earlier in the week as contrasting reports emerged about how much progress was being made. Concerns reached a peak when Fitch Ratings put the nation’s AAA rating on Credit Watch Negative. By Friday, though, some angst around the debt ceiling seemed to ease due to reports that negotiators were making progress and that a deal could be near.
Lingering rate hike concerns were also in play as investors reacted to the following commentary from Fed officials:
Some economic data this week corroborated the view that more rate hikes may be needed. Briefly, Q1 GDP was revised up to 1.3% from 1.1%, weekly initial jobless claims came in lower than expected, and the Personal Income and Spending Report on Friday reflected strong consumer spending and an uptick in the year-over-year PCE and core-PCE Price Indices.
Following the release of the Personal Income and Spending Report, market participants dialed up expectations of a 25 basis points rate hike at the June FOMC meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 65.4% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike in June, up from 17.4% last Friday and 13.7% a month ago.
Market participants were also digesting some market-moving corporate news. NVIDIA (NVDA) logged a huge gain following its stellar quarterly results and guidance. Marvell Technology (MRVL) was also a big winner after its earnings report. Those names helped drive the outperformance of the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) this week, which jumped 10.7%. After this week’s gain, the SOX is up 18.4% this month.
There was also a slate of earnings reports from retailers, which fueled some outsized moves to the upside and the downside.
In addition, mega caps continued their outperformance. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) rose 2.2% this week versus a 0.3% gain in the market-cap weighted S&P 500. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), meanwhile, fell 1.2%.
Treasury yields moved sharply higher this week. The 2-yr note yield rose 29 basis points as market participants recalibrated Fed policy outlook to 4.56%. The 10-yr note yield rose 11 basis points to 3.80%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 1.0% to 104.23.
S&P 500 sector performance reflected leadership from mega cap stocks. The information technology (+5.1%), communication services (+1.2%), and consumer discretionary (+0.4%) sectors were the lone outperformers to close with a gain this week. Meanwhile, the consumer staples (-3.2%) and materials (-3.1%) sectors were the weakest performers.
As a reminder, markets are closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day.
Below are truncated summaries of daily action:
Monday:
Index level performance was mixed, yet action under the surface skewed more positive. Still, there was not a lot of conviction on either side of the tape. Uncertainty about the debt ceiling remains front of mind for market participants.
Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated in an interview that early June is a “hard deadline” for the debt ceiling and that the odds the US can pay all its bills on June 15 are “quite low” without a debt ceiling increase, according NBC News. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, though, told reporters that it’s possible to get a deal tonight or later this week, according to CNBC.
There was also some commentary from Fed officials for market participants to digest. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) said in a CNBC interview that a decision to pause in June is a close call, adding that if the Fed pauses in June, it does not mean the tightening cycle is over. St. Louis Fed President Bullard (not an FOMC voter) said he thinks two more rate hikes are needed this year, according to Bloomberg.
Stocks didn’t have an outsized reaction to the aforementioned catalysts. The major indices clung to fairly narrow ranges for the entire session, sporting only modest gains or declines. The S&P 500 briefly peaked above 4,200 on a few occasions on Monday, but couldn’t maintain a posture above that level, which has offered stern resistance since last August. Like Friday, the S&P 500 closed Monday’s session slightly below 4,200.
Gains in some of the mega caps, along with a strong showing from bank stocks, offered some support to the broader market.
The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) rose 2.4% and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) gained 3.2%. This comes after PacWest Bancorp (PACW) disclosed it entered into a loan purchase and sale agreement with a unit of Kennedy-Wilson Holdings (KW) to sell a portfolio of 74 real estate construction loans with an approximate $2.6 billion aggregate principal balance currently outstanding.
There was no U.S. economic data of note on Monday.
Tuesday:
The stock market spent most of the morning little changed from Monday’s closing levels. Mega cap stocks had been a drag on the main indices for the entire session, yet the broader market was holding up okay.
Things started to deteriorate, though, as market participants learned from press reports that a debt ceiling deal was not imminent. House Speaker McCarthy told House GOP members that they are nowhere near a deal, according to Punchbowl News, while House Minority Leader Jeffries told reporters there is not a lot of progress being made on the debt ceiling. Also, Representative McHenry told reporters that both sides still have “significant differences on spending.”
Also, reports about a new Covid wave sweeping through China also impacted sentiment, as optimism about China’s reopening activity took a hit.
The S&P 500 energy sector (+1.0%) was alone in positive territory by the close. Chevron (CVX) offered a boost to the sector after it was upgraded to Buy from Hold HSBC. The consumer discretionary sector (-0.9%) was a relative outperformer, partially supported by a gain in Lowe’s (LOW) after the company reported earnings.
Reviewing Tuesday’s economic data:
- The IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in the preliminary May reading from 50.2. The IHS Markit Services PMI rose to 55.1 in the preliminary May reading from 53.6.
- New home sales increased 4.1% month-over-month in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683,000 units from a downwardly revised 656,000 (from 683,000) in March. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were up 11.8%.
- The key takeaway from the report is that higher mortgage rates are impeding stronger new home sales activity, evidenced by the sales declines in the higher-priced Northeast and West regions that reflect increased affordability pressures created by the higher mortgage rates.
Wednesday:
Debt ceiling uncertainty led to another weak showing for equities on Wednesday, building on Tuesday’s losses. The X-date is quickly approaching, possibly as early as June 1, yet reports indicate that debt ceiling negotiations hit an impasse.
Those reports were somewhat corroborated by House Speaker McCarthy who told reporters that debt ceiling negotiations are still far apart on a number of issues, but that talks would continue. He added that he’s not giving up and is hoping for progress.
Market participants were also contending with some lingering rate hike worries after Fed Governor Waller (FOMC voter) said in a speech on policy rate hikes that “we need to maintain flexibility on the best decision to take in June… fighting inflation continues to be my priority.” The market also received the Minutes from the May 2-3 FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which didn’t contain anything too surprising.
Concerns about rate hikes took a back seat, though, to debt ceiling angst, which fueled a broad retreat. The major indices all closed in negative territory, albeit off their worst levels of the day. There was a somewhat short lived rebound in the late afternoon that saw the main indices approaching session highs. That move higher appeared to be driven by a buy program with all 11 S&P 500 sectors moving up in tandem and no other news to account for the improvement.
The major indices all pulled back again, however, ahead of the closing bell. Market breadth skewed negative with decliners leading advancers by a greater than 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a greater than 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.
The consumer discretionary sector (-0.2%) saw the slimmest decline on Wednesday. The sector was partially supported by Amazon.com (AMZN) along with outperforming homebuilder components. This came after Toll Brothers (TOL), although not a sector component, reported earnings.
Other notable outperformers following pleasing earnings and/or guidance included retailers Urban Outfitters (URBN), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), and Kohl’s (KSS). On the flip side, Analog Devices (ADI) was a top laggard following its disappointing guidance, dragging down other semiconductor stocks in sympathy. The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 1.7%.
Reviewing Wednesday’s economic data:
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index dropped 4.6% with purchase applications falling 4.0% and refinance applications dropping 5.0%.
- The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 12.46 million barrels versus a build of 5.04 million barrels last week.
Thursday:
The major indices had a mixed showing on Thursday as participants dealt with mixed news catalysts. Chief among the news catalysts was NVIDIA’s (NVDA) huge gain after reporting better-than-expected fiscal Q1 results that featured spectacular fiscal Q2 revenue guidance.
NVIDIA’s results fueled buying interest in other semiconductor and mega cap stocks, offering a lot of support to the broader market. The Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.5% while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 rose 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), though, declined 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell 0.1%.
Still, market breadth reflected underlying weakness due to ongoing angst about the debt ceiling. Decliners led advancers by a 9-to-5 margin at the NYSE and a better than 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.
That angst, though, seemed to dissipate somewhat as the session progressed. Before the open, it was reported that Fitch Ratings put the nation’s AAA rating on Credit Watch Negative. It was also reported that Congressional members will leave Washington for Memorial Day, but were warned that they should be ready to return on 24 hours notice if a debt ceiling deal is reached.
Later reports emerged that seemingly calmed some nervousness around the debt ceiling. Negotiators are close to a deal on a “slimmed-down” debt ceiling, according to Bloomberg. Also, Republicans and Democrats are narrowing differences on the debt limit, according to Reuters.
Market participants were also digesting some relatively pleasing U.S. economic data. The initial jobless claims report showed continued strength in the labor market and Q1 GDP was revised up to 1.3% from 1.1%. This was in contrast to some weak data out of Germany, which reported its second straight quarter of contraction in GDP, stoking global growth concerns.
Reviewing Thursday’s economic data:
- The second estimate for Q1 GDP was revised up to 1.3% from the advance estimate of 1.1% and the GDP Price Deflator was revised up to 4.2% from the advance estimate of 4.0%.
- The key takeaway from the report is that consumer spending remained strong (+3.8%) in the first quarter in spite of the ongoing inflation pressures.
- Initial claims for the week ending May 20 increased by 4,000 to 229,000. The prior week saw a downward revision to 225,000 from 242,000. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 13 decreased by 5,000 to 1.794 million.’
- The key takeaway from the report is that initial jobless claims are nowhere near recession levels. They continue to register in a manner that connotes tight labor market conditions.
Friday:
The stock market closed out the week on an upbeat note. Angst about the debt ceiling seemingly eased somewhat following reports that a debt ceiling agreement could be near, although no such agreement was announced before the close. Also, mega caps continued to rally, boosting index performance, and economic data pointed to continued resilience for the U.S. economy.
The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) rose 1.9% while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) rose 0.8%. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 gained 1.3% and closed above 4,200 — at its highest level since last August.
Semiconductor stocks also continued to rally, driving a 6.3% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX). This came after Marvell (MRVL) reporting pleasing earnings and guidance. For the week, the PHLX Semiconductor Index gained 10.7%, leaving it up 18.4% for the month.
Notably, the rally was not deterred by rising expectations of a 25 basis points rate hike at the June FOMC meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 66.5% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike in June, up from 51.7% yesterday and 13.7% a month ago. This followed this morning’s data, which showed continued strength in the economy, helping to quell worries about a hard landing.
Reviewing Friday’s economic data:
- Personal income increased 0.4% month-over-month in April following a 0.3% increase in March. Personal spending increased 0.8% month-over-month following an upwardly revised 0.1% increase (from 0.0%) in March. The PCE Price Index increased 0.4% month-over-month and was up 4.4% year-over-year versus 4.2% in March. The core-PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.4% and was up 4.7% versus 4.6% in March.
- The key takeaway from the report is the combination of a robust 0.5% increase in real spending and the uptick in the year-over-year rates for the PCE Price Index and core-PCE Price Index. That combination will give the Fed some pause about pausing its rate hikes in June.
- Durable goods orders increased 1.1% month-over-month in April following an upwardly revised 3.3% increase (from 3.2%) in March. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders declined 0.2% month-over-month in April following a 0.3% increase in March.
- The key takeaway from the report is that nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft — a proxy for business spending — increased 1.4% month-over-month.
- The Advance Intl. Trade in Goods Report for April showed a widening in the deficit to $96.8 billion from an upwardly revised $82.7 billion deficit (from -$84.6 billion) in March. Adv. Retail Inventories jumped 0.2% while Advance Wholesale Inventories declined 0.2%.
- The key takeaway from the report is on the trade side, which showed exports of goods being $9.5 billion less than march exports and imports of goods being $4.5 billion more than March imports.
- The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May checked in at 59.2 versus the preliminary reading of 57.7. The final reading for April was of 63.5. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 58.4.
- The key takeaway from the report is that consumer sentiment was better than the mid-month look, yet sentiment worsened versus April as worries about the economic outlook increased.
Source: Briefing Investor
Concerns or questions about how your investment portfolio will hold up in the current market environment? Contact Financial Synergies today.
We are a boutique, financial advisory and total wealth management firm with over 35 years helping clients navigate turbulent markets. To learn more about our approach to investment management please reach out to us. One of our seasoned advisors would be happy to help you build a custom financial plan to help ensure you accomplish your financial goals and objectives. Schedule a conversation with us today.
More relevant articles by Financial Synergies:
Week In Review: Ends On High Note [May 26-23]
The stock market finished out last week on an upbeat note ahead of the extended holiday weekend. The major indices saw some turbulent action, though, as market participants dealt with a lot of crosscurrents. The S&P 500 traded in a wide band between 4,100 and its closing level on Friday, which was just above 4,200. The latter is the highest level for the S&P 500 since last August.
Uncertainty about the debt ceiling kept the market in check earlier in the week as contrasting reports emerged about how much progress was being made. Concerns reached a peak when Fitch Ratings put the nation’s AAA rating on Credit Watch Negative. By Friday, though, some angst around the debt ceiling seemed to ease due to reports that negotiators were making progress and that a deal could be near.
Lingering rate hike concerns were also in play as investors reacted to the following commentary from Fed officials:
Some economic data this week corroborated the view that more rate hikes may be needed. Briefly, Q1 GDP was revised up to 1.3% from 1.1%, weekly initial jobless claims came in lower than expected, and the Personal Income and Spending Report on Friday reflected strong consumer spending and an uptick in the year-over-year PCE and core-PCE Price Indices.
Following the release of the Personal Income and Spending Report, market participants dialed up expectations of a 25 basis points rate hike at the June FOMC meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 65.4% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike in June, up from 17.4% last Friday and 13.7% a month ago.
Market participants were also digesting some market-moving corporate news. NVIDIA (NVDA) logged a huge gain following its stellar quarterly results and guidance. Marvell Technology (MRVL) was also a big winner after its earnings report. Those names helped drive the outperformance of the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) this week, which jumped 10.7%. After this week’s gain, the SOX is up 18.4% this month.
There was also a slate of earnings reports from retailers, which fueled some outsized moves to the upside and the downside.
In addition, mega caps continued their outperformance. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) rose 2.2% this week versus a 0.3% gain in the market-cap weighted S&P 500. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), meanwhile, fell 1.2%.
Treasury yields moved sharply higher this week. The 2-yr note yield rose 29 basis points as market participants recalibrated Fed policy outlook to 4.56%. The 10-yr note yield rose 11 basis points to 3.80%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 1.0% to 104.23.
S&P 500 sector performance reflected leadership from mega cap stocks. The information technology (+5.1%), communication services (+1.2%), and consumer discretionary (+0.4%) sectors were the lone outperformers to close with a gain this week. Meanwhile, the consumer staples (-3.2%) and materials (-3.1%) sectors were the weakest performers.
As a reminder, markets are closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day.
Below are truncated summaries of daily action:
Monday:
Index level performance was mixed, yet action under the surface skewed more positive. Still, there was not a lot of conviction on either side of the tape. Uncertainty about the debt ceiling remains front of mind for market participants.
Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated in an interview that early June is a “hard deadline” for the debt ceiling and that the odds the US can pay all its bills on June 15 are “quite low” without a debt ceiling increase, according NBC News. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, though, told reporters that it’s possible to get a deal tonight or later this week, according to CNBC.
There was also some commentary from Fed officials for market participants to digest. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) said in a CNBC interview that a decision to pause in June is a close call, adding that if the Fed pauses in June, it does not mean the tightening cycle is over. St. Louis Fed President Bullard (not an FOMC voter) said he thinks two more rate hikes are needed this year, according to Bloomberg.
Stocks didn’t have an outsized reaction to the aforementioned catalysts. The major indices clung to fairly narrow ranges for the entire session, sporting only modest gains or declines. The S&P 500 briefly peaked above 4,200 on a few occasions on Monday, but couldn’t maintain a posture above that level, which has offered stern resistance since last August. Like Friday, the S&P 500 closed Monday’s session slightly below 4,200.
Gains in some of the mega caps, along with a strong showing from bank stocks, offered some support to the broader market.
The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) rose 2.4% and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) gained 3.2%. This comes after PacWest Bancorp (PACW) disclosed it entered into a loan purchase and sale agreement with a unit of Kennedy-Wilson Holdings (KW) to sell a portfolio of 74 real estate construction loans with an approximate $2.6 billion aggregate principal balance currently outstanding.
There was no U.S. economic data of note on Monday.
Tuesday:
The stock market spent most of the morning little changed from Monday’s closing levels. Mega cap stocks had been a drag on the main indices for the entire session, yet the broader market was holding up okay.
Things started to deteriorate, though, as market participants learned from press reports that a debt ceiling deal was not imminent. House Speaker McCarthy told House GOP members that they are nowhere near a deal, according to Punchbowl News, while House Minority Leader Jeffries told reporters there is not a lot of progress being made on the debt ceiling. Also, Representative McHenry told reporters that both sides still have “significant differences on spending.”
Also, reports about a new Covid wave sweeping through China also impacted sentiment, as optimism about China’s reopening activity took a hit.
The S&P 500 energy sector (+1.0%) was alone in positive territory by the close. Chevron (CVX) offered a boost to the sector after it was upgraded to Buy from Hold HSBC. The consumer discretionary sector (-0.9%) was a relative outperformer, partially supported by a gain in Lowe’s (LOW) after the company reported earnings.
Reviewing Tuesday’s economic data:
Wednesday:
Debt ceiling uncertainty led to another weak showing for equities on Wednesday, building on Tuesday’s losses. The X-date is quickly approaching, possibly as early as June 1, yet reports indicate that debt ceiling negotiations hit an impasse.
Those reports were somewhat corroborated by House Speaker McCarthy who told reporters that debt ceiling negotiations are still far apart on a number of issues, but that talks would continue. He added that he’s not giving up and is hoping for progress.
Market participants were also contending with some lingering rate hike worries after Fed Governor Waller (FOMC voter) said in a speech on policy rate hikes that “we need to maintain flexibility on the best decision to take in June… fighting inflation continues to be my priority.” The market also received the Minutes from the May 2-3 FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which didn’t contain anything too surprising.
Concerns about rate hikes took a back seat, though, to debt ceiling angst, which fueled a broad retreat. The major indices all closed in negative territory, albeit off their worst levels of the day. There was a somewhat short lived rebound in the late afternoon that saw the main indices approaching session highs. That move higher appeared to be driven by a buy program with all 11 S&P 500 sectors moving up in tandem and no other news to account for the improvement.
The major indices all pulled back again, however, ahead of the closing bell. Market breadth skewed negative with decliners leading advancers by a greater than 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a greater than 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.
The consumer discretionary sector (-0.2%) saw the slimmest decline on Wednesday. The sector was partially supported by Amazon.com (AMZN) along with outperforming homebuilder components. This came after Toll Brothers (TOL), although not a sector component, reported earnings.
Other notable outperformers following pleasing earnings and/or guidance included retailers Urban Outfitters (URBN), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), and Kohl’s (KSS). On the flip side, Analog Devices (ADI) was a top laggard following its disappointing guidance, dragging down other semiconductor stocks in sympathy. The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 1.7%.
Reviewing Wednesday’s economic data:
Thursday:
The major indices had a mixed showing on Thursday as participants dealt with mixed news catalysts. Chief among the news catalysts was NVIDIA’s (NVDA) huge gain after reporting better-than-expected fiscal Q1 results that featured spectacular fiscal Q2 revenue guidance.
NVIDIA’s results fueled buying interest in other semiconductor and mega cap stocks, offering a lot of support to the broader market. The Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.5% while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 rose 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), though, declined 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell 0.1%.
Still, market breadth reflected underlying weakness due to ongoing angst about the debt ceiling. Decliners led advancers by a 9-to-5 margin at the NYSE and a better than 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.
That angst, though, seemed to dissipate somewhat as the session progressed. Before the open, it was reported that Fitch Ratings put the nation’s AAA rating on Credit Watch Negative. It was also reported that Congressional members will leave Washington for Memorial Day, but were warned that they should be ready to return on 24 hours notice if a debt ceiling deal is reached.
Later reports emerged that seemingly calmed some nervousness around the debt ceiling. Negotiators are close to a deal on a “slimmed-down” debt ceiling, according to Bloomberg. Also, Republicans and Democrats are narrowing differences on the debt limit, according to Reuters.
Market participants were also digesting some relatively pleasing U.S. economic data. The initial jobless claims report showed continued strength in the labor market and Q1 GDP was revised up to 1.3% from 1.1%. This was in contrast to some weak data out of Germany, which reported its second straight quarter of contraction in GDP, stoking global growth concerns.
Reviewing Thursday’s economic data:
Friday:
The stock market closed out the week on an upbeat note. Angst about the debt ceiling seemingly eased somewhat following reports that a debt ceiling agreement could be near, although no such agreement was announced before the close. Also, mega caps continued to rally, boosting index performance, and economic data pointed to continued resilience for the U.S. economy.
The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) rose 1.9% while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) rose 0.8%. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 gained 1.3% and closed above 4,200 — at its highest level since last August.
Semiconductor stocks also continued to rally, driving a 6.3% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX). This came after Marvell (MRVL) reporting pleasing earnings and guidance. For the week, the PHLX Semiconductor Index gained 10.7%, leaving it up 18.4% for the month.
Notably, the rally was not deterred by rising expectations of a 25 basis points rate hike at the June FOMC meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 66.5% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike in June, up from 51.7% yesterday and 13.7% a month ago. This followed this morning’s data, which showed continued strength in the economy, helping to quell worries about a hard landing.
Reviewing Friday’s economic data:
Source: Briefing Investor
Concerns or questions about how your investment portfolio will hold up in the current market environment? Contact Financial Synergies today.
We are a boutique, financial advisory and total wealth management firm with over 35 years helping clients navigate turbulent markets. To learn more about our approach to investment management please reach out to us. One of our seasoned advisors would be happy to help you build a custom financial plan to help ensure you accomplish your financial goals and objectives. Schedule a conversation with us today.
More relevant articles by Financial Synergies:
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