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Weekly insights on the markets, economy, and financial planning

Is a Zombie Recession coming? (By that, I mean that renewed fears of a "hard landing" recession have emerged from the grave.)

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Given the speed and severity by which global economic growth has collapsed since the coronavirus forced nations to shut down, many people are naturally wondering whether we are in a recession or a depression. While there are no hard-and-fast rules for distinguishing between the two, there are clear qualitative differences.
The stock market returned to its winning ways this week in a broad-based advance led by the mega-cap technology stocks. The Nasdaq Composite led the way with a 6.0% gain that lifted the tech index back into positive territory for the year. The Russell 2000 (+5.5%) was next in line, followed by the S&P 500 (+3.5%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+2.6%).
With recession concerns intensifying in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, many may be wondering whether small cap stocks are poised to struggle. Are small companies more vulnerable now than they have been during other periods of economic distress? And what are the implications for the size premium? That is, the tendency for small cap stocks to outperform over the long-term.
Stocks post best monthly gains since 1987, but falter into week's end. The S&P 500 ended the week with a 0.2% decline, although it had been up as much as 3.9% mid-week in a momentum trade fueled by reopening hopes and COVID-19 therapeutic progress. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) posted comparable declines, while the Russell 2000 gained 2.2%.
Like the seasons, boom and bust cycles are a natural and unavoidable part of both the stock market and the economy. And although the winter months may be unpleasant, they eventually give way to warmer weather. So too do recessions and bear markets eventually stabilize and pave the way for economic expansions and bull markets.
Join us for a discussion on the current global markets and the coronavirus pandemic, featuring Dimensional Fund Advisor's, Dr. Apollo Lupescu. Apollo gives his perspective on the current economic and market environment, and we had the opportunity to ask a few specific questions as well.
The large-cap indices declined for the first time in three weeks, as risk sentiment was kept in check by the intense volatility in the oil futures market and valuation concerns. The losses weren't that great, though, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 1.9%, the S&P 500 losing 1.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite losing 0.2%. The Russell 2000, however, gained 0.3%.
Amidst all the negative news (coronavirus pandemic, market downturn, economic collapse, jobless claims, etc.), there are reasons to be positive. April has been a fantastic month for the stock market - historic really. Yes, we are still well off of our previous highs, but at least we've made progress.
A crazy headline for crazy times. U.S. oil futures went negative for the first time Monday, a chaotic demonstration of the dwindling capacity to store all the crude oil that the world’s injured economy would otherwise be using. But, with commodities futures contracts, it's not that simple.
It was a remarkable week of trading in the stock market, which is becoming almost cliche to say. Every week since February 19 has been remarkable, but this one ranks at, or near, the top of remarkable weeks.
Enclosed is our 1st Quarter 2020 Newsletter with timely articles on the markets, investing, and financial planning. We hope you find it helpful.
With activity in many industries sharply curtailed in an effort to reduce the chances of spreading the coronavirus, some economists say a recession is inevitable, if one hasn’t already begun. From a markets perspective, we have already experienced a drop in stocks, as prices have likely incorporated the growing chance of recession.
A monster week for stocks! The market rallied during the past week as investor sentiment continued improving while the Federal Reserve announced more aggressive action. The S&P 500 gained 12.1% while the Russell 2000 (+18.5%) outperformed.
Last week's jobs report confirmed what investors and economists already knew: work stoppages around the country due to the coronavirus have led to layoffs, furloughed workers, and a rising unemployment rate.

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